DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/14 07:17

   Cotton Awaits Data

   Traders are anticipating today's long time no see supply-demand update.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   Traders are anticipating today's long time no see supply-demand update. At 
noon EST, USDA will issue its first WASDE since the shutdown of the U.S. 
government. Meanwhile, overnight, the ICE futures posted new life-of-contract 
lows.

   For that November report, the average trade expectation has U.S. cotton 
production at 13.52 million bales. That number would be higher than the 13.22 
million bales reported in September. Exports are expected at 12.08 million 
bales versus 12.00 million bales, and ending stocks are expected at 3.76 
million bales versus 3.60 million bales previously reported. World 2025/26 
production is expected to come in at 117.91 million bales versus 117.68 million 
bales, world consumption at 118.12 million bales versus 118.83 million bales, 
and world ending stocks at 73.64 million bales versus the 73.14 million bales 
seen in September.

   December cotton will enter its delivery on Nov. 21. Thus, all traders, 
except those intending to participate in the notice process, will have to 
liquidate or roll forward in time.

   The U.S. dollar is headed lower, as investors trimmed positions while 
waiting to assess a backlog of U.S. data following the government's reopening. 
Traders had sold the Greenback despite higher yields and expectations for a 
Federal Reserve rate cut next month receding. The move came alongside a selloff 
in U.S. equities and bonds, which spilled over into Asian markets on Friday.

   Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 64.00 cents and 63.50 cents, 
with resistance at 65.35 cents and 64.40 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 18,210 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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