DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/02 07:44

   Cotton: Iran, Oil, Rates, Dollar 

   Cotton prices fall sharply amid geopolitical tensions, overbought funds, 
weather, and trade concerns.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is sharply lower this morning as a combination of seasonal 
pressures, escalation with Iran, higher crude oil, and strong U.S. Dollar are 
bearing down on prices. Moreover, with the hefty net-long fund position, 
resulting in an overbought condition, the market was primed for a setback.

   This Thursday, USDA will release its latest round of exports-sales. Last 
week saw reduced net-sales of 95,000 bales for the current season, and 30,000 
for the 2027/2028 year. Shipments tallied 181,000 bales, also considered 
"low-ebbed."

   Later this week, traders will see new monthly jobs data for August. Last 
month, the Labor Department reported a net job loss of -85,000 non-farm jobs. 
The report is out at 8:30am.

   On Friday at 3:30 p.m., the CFTC will update its weekly C-O-T numbers. Last 
week, the managed-money funds bought some 17,000 positions, swelling their 
net-long carry to 95,000 contracts. Their record long position stands around 
108,000.

   On September 24, Presidents Trump and Xi meet in Washington. Among their 
many topics to discuss, two key ones will be Iran and global trade.

   Tropical Storm Edouard is gaining strength as it tracks across the northern 
Gulf and is less than 24 hours away from making landfall in Texas. A warning 
has been issued by the National Hurricane Center from Port Bolivar, Texas, to 
the Vermilion/Cameron Parish Line in Louisiana.

   For today support for December Cotton stands at 8705 and 8575, with 
resistance around 9155 and 9314. This morning's estimated volume is a whopping 
43,875 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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