DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/09 06:56

   Cotton "Sees "Wednesday Regrouping"

   After its consolidation over the past few sessions, the cotton market is 
attempting to push higher today. It's likely being "egged-on" by the positive 
action of the energy, the metals, and a weaker U.S. Dollar. Cotton traders are 
still awaiting the outcome of various reports due later this week, involving 
exports, inflation, supply-demand, and C-O-T data.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The USDA issued its weekly crop progress numbers yesterday. The weekly Crop 
Progress report showed 34% of the U.S. cotton crop was rated good/excellent, 
which was down from 39% the previous week, and 54% from a year ago. The 
five-year average for this date stands at 44% good/excellent. Of the top 5 
producing states, Mississippi had declined the most at 52% G/E, down from 63% 
last week and a five-year average of 58%. The report also showed 40% of the 
U.S. crop had bolls open, up from 29% the previous week and 38% a year ago. The 
five-year average for this date is 38%.  

   On Thursday, new inflation data via the PPI (a measure of wholesale costs of 
goods and services) will be released. It is forecasted to show a rise of 0.4%. 
Then on Sept. 11 the CPI (consumer inflation) will be issued. The recent August 
jobs report has traders thinking the Federal Reserve may hike interest rates. 
The Federal Open Market Committee meets next week from Sept. 15-16.

   
Weekly exports-sales are delayed until Sept. 11 due to the observance of the 
Labor Day holiday. Last week saw sales of 27,525 bales for the 2026/2027 
marketing year. That amount was the lowest since cancellations at the end of 
the 2023/24 marketing year.

   Also on Sept. 11, the USDA will release its monthly supply-demand update. 
Last month, the 2026 crop was pegged at 13.61 million bales, down 90,000, with 
ending stock at 4.00 million versus the previous 4.10. The data will be out at 
noon eastern.  

   Lastly on Sept. 11, at 3:30pm, the CFTC will update its C-O-T numbers. The 
last report had the managed-money funds as net-buyers of 12,000 positions. 
Their action swelled the overall long carry to 107,936 contracts. Their record 
carry was 108,788 contracts. 

   For today close-in support for December Cotton stands at 8550 and 8500, with 
resistance around 8800 and 8860. This morning's estimated volume is 15,205 
contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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