DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          01/23 07:45

   Cotton Still Acts Weak

   The cotton market continues to add to its open interest plie, but still acts 
bearishly lethargic. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market continues to add to its open interest plie, but still acts 
bearishly lethargic. Currently, the Spot March contract is down nearly 100 
points from its settlement of last week, as the bearish trend exerted more 
negative technical energy Thursday.

   USDA just released its holiday-delayed weekly export sales this morning with 
the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 412,500 RB for 2025/2026 -- a marketing-year 
high -- were up 21 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the 
prior 4-week average.

   "Increases primarily for Vietnam (220,700 RB, including 4,400 RB switched 
from China), Bangladesh (38,600 RB), Pakistan (31,800 RB, including decreases 
of 2,700 RB), Malaysia (26,500 RB), and India (26,100 RB), were offset by 
reductions for Honduras (4,800 RB).

   "Net sales of 25,900 RB for 2026/2027 reported for Nicaragua (9,900 RB), 
Turkey (8,500 RB), Indonesia (7,500 RB), and Pakistan (2,700 RB), were offset 
by reductions for Vietnam (2,600 RB).

   "Exports of 187,800 RB -- a marketing-year high -- were up 20 percent from 
the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. The 
destinations were primarily to Vietnam (62,300 RB), Pakistan (45,900 RB), 
Indonesia (16,600 RB), Bangladesh (14,100 RB), and Turkey (13,300 RB).

   "Net sales of Pima totaling 16,400 RB for 2025/2026 -- a marketing-year high 
-- were up 4 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 
4-week average.

   "Increases were reported for India (9,100 RB), Vietnam (4,500 RB), China 
(2,600 RB), and Thailand (200 RB).

   "Exports of 10,000 RB were up 2 percent from the previous week and 23 
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to 
Vietnam (3,500 RB), India (1,600 RB), Egypt (1,300 RB), Costa Rica (900 RB), 
and Pakistan (700 RB)."

   Also, this afternoon, the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders 
information. Last Friday's numbers showed that the managed-money funds had net 
sold some 2,600 positions, increasing their net short carry to 50,372 contracts.

   March options will expire on Feb. 6, or in about two weeks. Traders will be 
anticipating what amount of Puts and Call may expire "in-the-money."

   Traders continue to keep vigil for the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling on the 
legality of Trump's tariffs, although such an announcement doesn't seem to be 
forthcoming any time soon. If the tariffs are invalidated, the Trump 
administration says it has other "legal options" to keep them in place, 
although certain financial chaos could emerge.

   Chart support for March cotton stands at 63.25 cents and 62.75 cents, with 
resistance hovering about 64.30 cents and 65.50 cents. Friday morning's 
estimated opening volume is 16,712 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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