DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          02/20 07:51

   Cotton Readies For Delivery 

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Friday as March cotton is seeing a 
pre-delivery rebound. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher Friday as March cotton is seeing a 
pre-delivery rebound. In addition, traders are also readying for Friday 
afternoon's CFTC numbers.

   USDA just released its holiday-delayed export sales with the following 
numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 466,300 RB for 2025/2026 -- a marketing-year 
high--were up noticeably and up 70 percent from the prior 4-week average. 
Increases primarily for Vietnam (144,800 RB, including 4,200 RB switched from 
unknown destinations, 3,000 RB switched from South Korea, 100 RB switched from 
Japan, and decreases of 7,000 RB), Bangladesh (126,400 RB), Pakistan (50,000 
RB, including decreases of 400 RB), India (45,300 RB), and Turkey (27,100 RB, 
including decreases of 300 RB), were offset by reductions for unknown 
destinations (4,900 RB). Net sales of 33,100 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for 
Bangladesh (15,000 RB), Guatemala (13,200 RB), Nicaragua (2,600 RB), and Turkey 
(2,300 RB). Exports of 172,600 RB were down 9 percent from the previous week 
and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily 
to Vietnam (51,500 RB), Turkey (36,700 RB), Pakistan (20,000 RB), Malaysia 
(11,500 RB), and Mexico (11,000 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 4,800 RB for 
2025/2026 were up 7 percent from the previous week, but down 61 percent from 
the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for India (2,500 RB), Vietnam 
(1,100 RB), Bangladesh (1,000 RB), Malaysia (100 RB), and Taiwan (100 RB). 
Exports of 5,400 RB were down 35 percent from the previous week and 14 percent 
from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were to India (2,600 RB), 
Vietnam (1,600 RB), Turkey (500 RB), China (500 RB), and Thailand (300 RB)."

   With a bit more detail, the USDA Ag Forum released the following projections 
for cotton: For 2026-27, world cotton production is expected to decline 3% to 
116.0 million bales, while consumption is projected to rise from 118.7 million 
to 120.1 million bales. This condition slightly flips the global balance sheet 
from a slight surplus to a deficit. The U.S. outlook varies little from 
2025-26. New-crop planted acreage is up slightly to 9.4 million acres from the 
previous 9.3 million. This number is below the recent NCC's private survey of 
8.99 million acres. Overall, U.S. ending stocks for the new season are 
marginally lower at 4.2 million bales compared to 4.4 million in 2025-26.

   Friday, at 3:30 p.m. EST, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
data. Its last calculation showed managed-money funds had increased their 
net-short position to 75,602 contracts. Their record concentration from last 
October stands at 81,343 contracts. 

   This Monday, March cotton enters its delivery period. Any producer tied to 
the March contract must either flatten or roll by Friday's close to avoid that 
process. Delivery runs through Monday, March 7. 

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 65.20 cents and 64.85 cents, with 
resistance around 67.00 and 67.60 cents. Friday morning's estimated volume is 
26,258 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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