DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/27 07:16

   Cotton Unchanged, All Else Crumbles 

   In the face of a massive Monday sell-off in the energies and the grains, the 
cotton market is resiliently unchanged. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   In the face of a massive Monday sell-off in the energies and the grains, the 
cotton market is resiliently unchanged. Cotton's technicals still carry a 
positive bent, while the funds added to their long carry last week. Traders 
will obviously keep one "trading eye" on the crude oil -- that is the Middle 
East -- with the other on news from the Fed or some other cotton specific 
report. 

   Crude oil is getting crushed after Iran reportedly said it would suspend 
various attacks on Hormuz and other locales, as long as the U.S. pauses its 
hostilities. There are reports China is attempting to help initiate peace talks 
in Pakistan between the belligerents.

   Last Friday the CFTC updated its Commitments of Traders data. The results 
showed managed-money funds bought some 3,500 futures, further swelling their 
net-long position to 53,209 contracts. 

   Monday at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will issue fresh crop condition numbers. Of late, 
the good-to-excellent readings have been moving two-sided. The highest reading 
was 54%, followed by a couple of weeks of 44% good to excellent, but Monday 
past was 45%.

   Tuesday, the Federal Reserve meets to discuss U.S. interest rates and will 
announce its intentions at 2 p.m. EDT Wednesday. Currently, there is a 66% 
chance the central bank will not do anything. However, some governors would 
like to hike rates immediately. 

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug 1-Aug 5) shows much above-normal 
temperatures for Texas, while the Delta should experience only above-normal 
readings. The Southeast returns to a normal range. Rain-wise, Texas looks to 
have normal chances, while the Southeast should have slightly above-normal 
odds. 

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 79.45 cents and 78.75 cents, 
with resistance around 81.00 cents and 82.00 cents. This morning's estimated 
volume is 7,878 contracts.

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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