DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          06/25 07:42

   Cotton Market Edges Higher Thursday

   The cotton market is somewhat higher today after its near limit-down move 
Wednesday.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher today after its near limit-down move 
Wednesday. The market was negatively influenced by the cascading energy and 
metal markets. Today, traders will assess fresh export sales, as well as 
Friday's CFTC update. The overarching report will be next Tuesday's acres 
numbers from USDA.

   USDA just released its weekly export sales with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 83,900 RB for 2025/2026 were down 53 percent 
from the previous week and 54 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (31,300 RB, including 4,400 RB switched from unknown 
destinations, 500 RB switched from South Korea, and decreases of 200 RB), India 
(14,300 RB, including decreases of 500 RB), Bangladesh (14,200 RB, including 
decreases of 200 RB), China (7,600 RB), and South Korea (4,500 RB), were offset 
by reductions for unknown destinations (4,400 RB) and Nicaragua (400 RB). Net 
sales of 67,100 RB for 2026/2027 were primarily for China (13,500 RB), 
Guatemala (12,800 RB), Vietnam (10,600 RB), El Salvador (7,000 RB), and 
Indonesia (6,900 RB). Exports of 300,200 RB were up 20 percent from the 
previous week and 6 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations 
were primarily to Vietnam (102,800 RB), Pakistan (48,600 RB), Bangladesh 
(25,900 RB), Turkey (23,600 RB), and India (15,800 RB). Net sales of Pima 
totaling 4,300 RB for 2025/2026 were down 21 percent from the previous week and 
19 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for India (2,000 
RB), Turkey (1,200 RB), and Pakistan (1,200 RB), were offset by reductions for 
Egypt (100 RB). Exports of 7,800 RB were down 41 percent from the previous week 
and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily 
to India (3,900 RB), Peru (1,300 RB), Vietnam (1,100 RB), China (400 RB), and 
Bangladesh (300 RB)."

   Spot July is in delivery and Wednesday saw 527 notices tenders issued. The 
majority of which originated from Term Commodities. Today there were three, 
again from Term Commodities. The delivery period runs through July 7.

   On June 30, USDA will issue its Planted Acres report. Some analysts are 
expecting greater 2026 acres due to the spring rally to 88.00 cents. It is 
worth noting that the March Intentions were higher than expected.

   President Donald Trump asked Congress to approve more than $11 billion in 
additional aid for farmers facing high fuel and fertilizer costs since the Iran 
war. The new funding would add to the $12 billion in aid the administration has 
already disbursed to farmers this year. The U.S. agriculture industry has been 
saddled with high production costs and low crop prices.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 76.00 cents and 75.60 cents, 
with resistance around 78.10 cents and 79.00 cents. Thursday morning's 
estimated volume is 10,285 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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