DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          08/14 07:13

   Cotton Tries Friday Recovery 

   The cotton market is trying to build on its late Thursday snap up. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is trying to build on its late Thursday snap up. Earlier 
Thursday, the market was sharply lower on poorly received WASDE results but 
staged a small comeback. Traders continue to monitor poor growing conditions, a 
weaker U.S. dollar, and the on-going U.S./Iran situation.

   Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, the Commerce Department will post its monthly 
retail sales report. Expectations are running between roughly +0.1% to +0.3%. 
For trading purposes, some traders indicate a number above +0.3% is bullish 
indicating growth, a reading of +0.1% to +0.3% would be essentially neutral, 
while an even (00.00) number could suggest an economic slowdown.

   Friday afternoon, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders numbers. 
Last week saw the managed-money funds net buy 9,800 positions, swelling their 
net-long carry to 62,279 contracts.

   The Climate Prediction Center now says 40% of U.S. cotton area is in drought 
condition. That number has been steadily declining for the past three or so 
weeks and is way below its top reading of 98% drought earlier this spring.

   Monday at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update its Weekly Crop Progress and 
Conditions report. Recent data shows the crop rated at 40% good to excellent 
versus 42% last week, and 53% one year ago.

   China's State Reserve completed its 19th consecutive sold-out auction Friday 
for approximately 8,009 tonnes (about 35,239 bales). The 19-day total reached 
152,311 tonnes (about 670,168 bales), comprising 49% U.S. cotton, 19% 
Brazilian, and 32% Xinjiang, more or less.

   Friday morning, crude oil is stable-to-higher as the Trump administration 
says the U.S. Navy will continue its naval blockade of Iranian ports 
indefinitely. This move is reigniting traders' concerns over energy flows 
through the critical Strait of Hormuz.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 82.50 cents and 81.25 cents, 
with resistance around 85.25 cents and 86.00 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 9,295 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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