DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          11/17 07:22

   Cotton Suffers WASDE Hangover 

   The cotton market is slightly lower Monday, after its fall last Friday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is slightly lower Monday, after its fall last Friday. On 
that day, the market received new bearish supply-demand data in the form of the 
November WASDE. The U.S. dollar is higher Monday morning as some 
market-watchers now believe the U.S. central bank may not lower rates next 
month.

   In its November WASDE, USDA revealed higher production, exports and ending 
stocks compared to its September report. The agency forecasted an increased 
U.S. production of nearly 900,000 bales, taking the crop to 14.1 million bales. 
Exports increased 200,000 bales to 12.2 million, thereby jumping ending stocks 
some 20% to 4.3 million bales. The current stocks-to-use ratio stands at 31%. 
Global cotton production was forecasted 2.4 million bales higher with increases 
of one million bales for China, the 900,000-bale spike in the United States, 
plus a 500,000-bale jump for Brazil. As a result of those latter numbers, 
global ending stocks were up some 2.8 million bales to 75.9 million.   

   December cotton will enter its delivery on Nove. 21. Thus, all traders, 
except those intending to participate in the notice process, will have to 
liquidate or roll forward in time.

   Crude oil is slightly lower Monday, as loadings resumed at Russia's export 
hub are back on track. There was a 2-day suspension at the Black Sea port when 
it suffered a Ukrainian drone attack. Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy 
infrastructure remain a key military target. On Saturday, Ukraine said it hit 
Russia's Ryazan oil refinery.

   Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 65.00 cents and 66.10 cents, 
with resistance at 63.50 cents and 63.00 cents. Monday morning's estimated 
volume is 10,764 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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