DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          07/31 07:13

   Cotton Higher at Month's End 

   The cotton market is pushing ever higher, driven by domestic and 
international growing concerns, improving exports, and a strong Chinese 
interior auction. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is pushing ever higher, driven by domestic and 
international growing concerns, improving exports, and a strong Chinese 
interior auction.

   It has been reported that China's State Reserve had its ninth consecutive 
sold-out auction. There were approximately 8,000 metric tonnes (about 35,200 
bales) sold. That brought the nine-day total to 72,159 mt (about 317,500 
bales), consisting of 54% U.S., 19% Brazil, and 27% Xinjiang.

   Thursday's weekly export included a combined sales number of 382,166 bales, 
up from 67,433 the previous week and the highest since June 4. At that time, 
cumulative sales were 107% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 
114% for this point in the marketing year.

   The 6- to 10-day weather forecast (Aug. 4-8) shows much-above normal 
temperatures of varying degrees for the length and breadth of the U.S. Cotton 
Belt. Rain-wise, West Texas should see nearly-normal changes, while the lower 
Delta and the Southeast may anticipate slightly-above normal opportunities.

   Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC updates its Commitments of Traders data. 
Last week's report showed managed-money funds bought some 3,500 futures, 
further swelling their net-long position to 53,209 contracts.

   Chart support for December cotton stands at 80.50 cents and 79.80 cents, 
with resistance around 82.35 cents and 83.00 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 7,145 contracts.

    

    

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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