DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/28 07:14

   Cotton Moves Gingerly Higher 

   The cotton market is slightly higher Tuesday morning as it awaits -- 
actually needs -- other market-moving news. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is slightly higher Tuesday morning as it awaits -- 
actually needs -- other market-moving news. That is, by now much of the 
generational drought has been factored, as well as the understanding that the 
speculative funds are now long. With all that, a bull market still needs 
bullish fodder every day.

   USDA released its weekly Crop Progress report Monday. Its data showed 16% of 
the domestic 2026 crop has been planted. That number compares to last week's 
11% and 14% from a year ago. The five-year average for this date is 13%. Texas 
was 20% planted, the same as a year ago and just above the five-year average at 
19%. Arkansas was 17% planted versus a five-year average of 6%, and Mississippi 
was 15% planted versus 4% on average.

   Spot May contract is in delivery. Tuesday there were 140 notices tendered 
against Spot May. The single deliverer was JP Morgan, while the largest stopper 
was SG Americas with 85 notices. Thus far 178 notices have been issued. May's 
delivery period runs through May 6.

   The Federal Reserve meets Tuesday and will announce any change to U.S. 
monetary policy on Wednesday at 2 p.m. EDT. Currently, no change is expected in 
interest rates.

   Crude oil is significantly higher Tuesday as investors doubt any peace deal 
between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump and his national security team are 
mulling a proposal from Tehran that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz but delay 
any talks on nuclear power. The latter is a nonstarter for the U.S.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 78.80 cents and 78.00 cents, with 
resistance around 80.50 cents and 82.00 cents. Tuesday morning's estimated 
volume is 9,243 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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