DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/16 07:42

   Cotton Climbs Bull Mountain 

   The cotton market continues to ramp higher amid hot and dry weather, an 
influx of friendly speculative funds, higher fuels and fertilizers, and the 
potential for better foreign demand for 2026. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market continues to ramp higher amid hot and dry weather, an 
influx of friendly speculative funds, higher fuels and fertilizers, and the 
potential for better foreign demand for 2026. Traders will assess Thursday's 
export and retail sales, along with Friday's housing starts and the CFTC update 
for price possibilities.

   USDA released its export sales report with the following numbers:

   "Net sales of Upland totaling 161,100 RB for 2025/2026 were down 50 percent 
from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
primarily for Vietnam (62,100 RB, including 12,300 RB switched from unknown 
destinations and decreases of 3,900 RB), Turkey (49,000 RB), Pakistan (32,900 
RB, including decreases of 200 RB), Bangladesh (14,800 RB), and India (9,700 
RB), were offset by reductions for unknown destinations (13,500 RB) and 
Honduras (300 RB). Net sales of 26,900 RB for 2026/2027 were reported for 
Vietnam (20,700 RB) and Portugal (6,200 RB). Exports of 305,000 RB were down 11 
percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The 
destinations were primarily to Vietnam (110,400 RB), Pakistan (35,900 RB), 
Turkey (31,900 RB), Bangladesh (25,000 RB), and Indonesia (17,400 RB). Net 
sales of Pima totaling 6,500 RB for 2025/2026 were up 1 percent from the 
previous week, but down 57 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases 
were reported for India (6,400 RB) and Malaysia (100 RB). Exports of 6,100 RB 
were down 43 percent from the previous week and 22 percent from the prior 
4-week average. The destinations were to India (4,200 RB), China (900 RB), 
Egypt (800 RB), and Indonesia (100 RB)."

   First notice day for the May contract is April 24. Its delivery period runs 
through May 6.

   On Friday, the CFTC will update its weekly Commitments of Traders 
information. Last week, the managed-money funds were pegged net-short by a 
proverbial hair, a mere 2,020 contracts. The update will be released at 3:30 
p.m. EDT.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 76.50 cents and 75.70 cents, with 
resistance around 79.00 cents and 79.50 cents. Thursday morning's estimated 
volume is 24,324 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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