DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          09/24 07:49

   Cotton Up On "Chinese Optimism"  

   Cotton is higher with the hopes of China and the United States making a 
deal. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is somewhat higher today, buoyed by the prospects of 
additional agricultural sales between the U.S. and China. Traders are also 
mindful of today's weekly exports-sales, and tomorrow's CFTC update. 

   Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the U.S. and China 
have agreed to extend "the Busan Agreement" till Jan. 10. The extra time will 
afford the two sides to perhaps work on even larger trade deals. For cotton 
traders hopes are that negotiations could result in China returning as a 
substantial buyer of US cotton. 

   USDA just released its weekly exports-sales with the following numbers: Net 
sales of Upland totaling 230,500 RB for 2026/2027 were up noticeably from the 
previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases primarily for Mexico 
(69,800 RB, including decreases of 200 RB), Vietnam (51,200 RB, including 4,500 
RB switched from China and decreases of 600 RB), Pakistan (44,500 RB, including 
5,200 RB switched from Bangladesh and decreases of 2,200 RB), India (33,300 RB, 
including decreases of 200 RB), and Honduras (18,800 RB), were offset by 
reductions for China (4,700 RB). Net sales of 123,000 RB for 2027/2028 were 
reported for Mexico (120,000 RB), Pakistan (2,500 RB), and Japan (500 RB). 
Exports of 164,700 RB were up 16 percent from the previous week, but down 5 
percent from the prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to 
Vietnam (49,000 RB), India (32,100 RB), Pakistan (25,700 RB), Mexico (8,900 
RB), and Turkey (8,800 RB). Net sales of Pima totaling 4,800 RB for 2026/2027 
were down 43 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 
4-week average. Increases primarily for Bangladesh (2,500 RB), Egypt (1,400 
RB), China (1,300 RB), Djibouti (500 RB switched from Hong Kong), and Turkey 
(300 RB), were offset by reductions for India (900 RB) and Hong Kong (500 RB). 
Exports of 11,700 RB were up noticeably from the previous week and from the 
prior 4-week average. The destinations were primarily to India (6,900 RB), 
Egypt (2,200 RB), Pakistan (900 RB), Costa Rica (900 RB), and Djibouti (500 RB).

   As mentioned, the long-awaited Trump/Xi trade meeting will take place in 
Washington today. There will be a welcoming ceremony at the White House, 
followed by a series of bilateral trade meetings, capped by a state dinner 
tonight. The two leaders will discuss, among many topics, tariffs, trade, AI, 
Iran, and Taiwan. 

   On Friday, at 3:30 p.m. EST, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
data. Last week's numbers showed that the managed-money traders were net 
sellers of 2,267 contracts. That action reduced their net long carry to 97,903. 
Their record stands at 108,788 contracts. 

   Crude Oil is tracking higher this morning as the President of Iran rejected 
all peace overtures made by the US at the UN meetings this week. The Iranians 
were angered by Mr. Trump's rhetoric to "annihilate" the country. Already on 
Wednesday a commercial vessel was struck in an attack in the Strait of Hormuz, 
killing one crew member.

   For today close-in support for December Cotton stands at 8200 and 8100, with 
resistance around 8400 and 8490. This morning's estimated volume is 13,685 
contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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