DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          12/16 07:18

   Cotton Dribbles Lower Tuesday

   The cotton market is leaking lower Tuesday morning amid final harvest 
pressures, a lack of timely information, and disinterest from some traders.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is leaking lower Tuesday morning amid final harvest 
pressures, a lack of timely information, and disinterest from some traders.

   The CFTC issued another catch-up Commitments of Traders report Monday. 
However, this time the managed-money funds were shown to be net-sellers! 
Numerically, they sold 3,756 contracts, swelling their net-short position to 
61,999 contracts.   

   The Labor Department will issue its November jobs report Tuesday morning. 
Expectations are calling for nonfarm payrolls to have increased by 45,000 -- 
down sharply from the 119,000 added in September. Traders also see the 
unemployment rate coming in at 4.5%, compared to the rate of 4.4% in September. 
In addition, October's retail sales report will also be published Tuesday.

   USDA issued a catch-up export sales report Monday, covering the week ended 
Nov. 20. Net sales for the 2025-26 season were 148,000 bales, with Vietnam as 
the top buyer at 46,700 bales. For the 2026-27 season, sales were 3,100 bales. 
Shipments were 120,800 bales. USDA will release another export sales report 
this Thursday.

   China reported disappointing economic news Monday. The country's retail 
sales were much weaker than expected and factory output growth slowed to a 
15-month low. In fact, retail sales posted their worst performance since 
Beijing abruptly ended its "zero-COVID" curbs.

   Daily chart support for March cotton stands at 63.55 cents and 63.00 cents, 
with resistance hovering about 64.75 cents and 65.10 cents. Tuesday morning's 
estimated opening volume is 4,838 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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