DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          02/13 07:52

   Cotton Trades Quietly Lower Friday

   The cotton market is slightly lower Friday as traders square and adjust 
their positions for the three-day weekend.  

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market is slightly lower Friday as traders square and adjust 
their positions for the three-day weekend. 

   Thursday, the NCC issued its widely anticipated membership survey for 2026 
acres. The number was all-cotton acres of 8.99 million, down from last year's 
9.283 million. It was a near 3.2% decline.

   New inflation numbers were released Friday morning via the February CPI. 
Essentially, the data indicated the cost of goods and services rose at a slower 
annual rate than expected in January, providing hope the U.S. inflation problem 
could be starting to ease. The Consumer Price Index for January was 2.4%. 
Excluding food and energy, core CPI also was up 2.5%. Estimates were looking 
for an annual rate of 2.5% for both readings.

   Friday at 3:30 p.m. EST, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
data. Last week the managed-money funds sold some 6,700 positions, swelling 
their net=short position to 71,700 contracts. The record is 81,000-plus, which 
might be challenged in this report.

   Next week, China will be involved with her Lunar New Year holidays, meaning 
the nation will be on the move and somewhat closed down. Typically, a large 
part of the Chinese population will travel to their ancestral homes for family 
gatherings and celebrations. 

   Monday week will commence the delivery process for March cotton. Any 
producer tied to the March contract must either flatten or roll by the 
preceding Friday (Feb. 20) to avoid the delivery process. Current open interest 
for spot March is 70,520 contracts.

   The market will be closed this Monday in observance of Presidents Day 
(actually Mr. Washington's birthday). Trading will resume at 9 p.m. Monday as 
normal. However, all government reports for next week will be delayed by one 
day.

   Chart support for July cotton stands at 65.50 cents and 65.00, with 
resistance around 66.20 cents and 66.60 cents. Friday morning's estimated 
volume is 16,876 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




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