DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          04/17 07:55

   Cotton Can't Get a Grip  

   After its dramatic spill and partial recovery on Tuesday, the cotton market 
is right back at its lows. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   After its dramatic spill and partial recovery on Tuesday, the cotton market 
is right back at its lows. Clearly, speculators have soured on the market, and 
growers, still holding last year's production, are caught in the technical 
crosshairs. 

   Spot May will enter its delivery period next week (April 24). Coming into 
Wednesday's trade, the open interest for the May contract stands at 19,200. In 
addition, ICE exchange stocks have reached 166,190 bales, which is the highest 
they have been since June 2021.

   This Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EDT, USDA will issue its weekly export sales.  
Last report saw sales of 81,500 bales, down 4% and shipments of 274,000 bales, 
down 25%, however, China was the leader in both categories.

   The U.S. dollar is slightly lower Wednesday, but still hugging its 
five-month highs after Federal Reserve officials reiterated interest rates are 
likely to stay higher for longer. Recent data suggested the U.S. economy is on 
a stronger path than the Fed was forecasting. Those data points have encouraged 
investors to cut their bets on any down-the-road cuts to interest rates. 
Additionally, any flare-ups in the Middle East heighten the Greenback's appeal 
as a safe-haven asset.

   For Wednesday, chart support for July cotton stands at 81.30 cents and 80.70 
cents, with 85.45 cents and 86.20 cents as resistance. Wednesday morning's 
estimated volume stands at 12,102 contracts. 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.comor by calling (229) 
890-7780.




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